Russian Economy During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Energy Market Turbulence

In 2020, the Russian economy was hit by a double shock: pandemic coronavirus and falling oil prices. According to the VEB.RF Institute, the global economy is expected to fall by 4.4% in 2020 with a recovery of 4.8% next year. If the second wave of the pandemic occurs, the global economic downturn may reach –7-8%, and the recovery will be postponed by 1.5-2 years. The economy has passed the trough in Q2 2020. In June, as lockdown was partially lifted and production restarted, the Russian economy began to grow. Oil prices significantly decreased in Q2 2020 and are not expected to recover rapidly. Despite the uncertainty of COVID-19 pandemic, our baseline forecast assumes no new lockdowns across the World. Read more

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